Rich Internet Applications - AJAX Will Dominate

There are two main camps in the Rich Internet Applications arena, Flash and AJAX. While Adobe is Flexing its muscle for universal adoption of Flash as a programming environment, I believe AJAX will win out in the end. Here's why:

1. More gradual learning curve - with AJAX libraries such as prototype and scriptaculous, only a cursory knowledge of Javascript is required. In contrast, ActionScript powers Flash.
2. Widely supported in ASP.NET, Java, Ruby/Rails, PHP Frameworks (CakePHP, Symfony, etc.).
3. Shorter browser loading times. .swf files tend to take more time to download and start.
4. No additional costs to developers (Flash Basic 8 is $399 while Flash Pro 8 is $699).

While Flash does allow you to a create phenomenal website experience, AJAX provides a sufficiently rich experience to win the battle. It's important to note that this is not zero sum game. However, the winner will dictate how we experience the web in the next 3-5 years.